Investigating sensory and non-sensory factors affecting consumer repurchases: a case study of healthy snack products
In Part 1 of a two-part study, central location tests (CLTs) were conducted to understand how consumers responded to four pre-launch snack products. Consumers were selected based on product concept acceptance with quotas balancing sensory-driven vs health-driven consumers. One consumer panel (n=100) evaluated products in blind tastings. Another consumer panel (n=99) evaluated expectations based on packaging before completing an informed product tasting. Consumers were asked various questions, including product liking, purchase intention, motivations for purchase, and their first choice among the products evaluated. First-time and repeat purchases were then predicted for the sensory-driven vs health-driven consumer segments using credible intervals for first-choice proportions. Repurchase rates were predicted from each panel separately based on either blind tasting or informed tasting results. In Part 2, sales of the products in a cafeteria were tracked for 52 days. Consumers were incentivized to self-classify their purchases as either first-time or repeat. These sales data were used to validate the predicted purchase and repurchase rates from Part 1. The prediction for the two products that would be purchased and repurchased most often was accurate. The best-selling product was predicted to have the best repurchase rate; however, based on the sales data, the second-best-selling product had the best repurchase rate. Since the relationship between consumer choice and its predictors (e.g., liking, purchase intention, choice motivations, etc.) is complex, we further investigated these relationships with random forest models. Then, we updated these models based on cafeteria sales data augmented with CLT data, where this time, real purchases were predicted. Discrepancies of predicted vs observed repurchase rates could not be investigated experimentally, but have various potential explanations, one of which is that CLT consumers tasted all the products, whereas cafeteria consumers did not know what they were missing.
Pohjanheimo, T., Koivuniemi, E., & Castura, J.C. (2026). Investigating sensory and non-sensory factors affecting consumer repurchases: a case study of healthy snack products. 12th European Conference on Sensory and Consumer Research, 8-11 September. Oslo, Norway. (Poster Presentation).